I won’t spend much time on the startling decline we saw last Friday, and are seeing today, as we've talked about the reality this sort of event happening: the only question was “When?”
Actually, I'm relieved. I’ve been more cautious than the headlines...positioning your portfolio for the increasing volatility that comes with the “trifecta” of
1) rising interest rates;
2) a maturing economy;
3) and political / Geo-political events that take center stage.
I do not believe we have seen the final market top. Once the market prices in answers and some certainty we'll see them settle down and we'll find better prices that ARE worth buying.
My goal is to increase your portfolio's income to meet your cash flow needs AND to stabilize portfolio values for the final market topping phase. I'm comfortable holding what we currently own, knowing we'll be adding to the best values when the time is right.
For those of you who love my charts, below is the 1-year chart for the Dow, one of the dozens of indices that help me decide when to buy or sell. What jumps out to me are the periodic “mini-tops and bottoms.” When deciding whether to add to different sectors of your portfolio I rely on these technical indicators. Quite frankly, I think one of the most valuable qualities I bring you is my experience, my ability to remain cool under fire and my confidence in finding opportunities in the middle of un-nerving times.
During the last two weeks of January, investors, fearing they had missed the boat by sitting on the sidelines, jumped into stocks with both feet: $24 BILLION dollars virtually flew into stocks. This buying pushed up the market to the top end of this bubble you see below. I have to ask; “who in the world was buying after this run-up and how panicked do they now feel?” NO ONE likes to buy a top!
In the coming months we'll focus on how to get through the topping process that could take 1-2 years. We'll also talk about what I’m doing to position your portfolio in the event interest rates DO in fact go up 4 times in 2018.
At the same time, we'll spend time on the business of your life and for a smooth 2017 tax filing season. Once the Tuesday April 17th deadline is over, estate planning will take center stage. Whether you need to create your estate plan or update the one you have, this is one of the best ways to ensure you can sleep at night.
Please contact Julie Skye with questions or to set up an appointment at firstname.lastname@example.org or (918) 408-7981.