This 2nd Week of January 2022 Thoughts
Updated: Sep 23, 2022
One of my favorite brains, veteran investor Mark Mobius, told Bloomberg that the recent spike in U.S. Treasury yields can go higher as too many are under-pricing inflation risks.
One of my favorite brains, veteran investor Mark Mobius, told Bloomberg that the recent spike in U.S. Treasury yields can go higher as too many are underpricing inflation risks.
“The yields can go much, much higher because investors won’t buy Treasuries if their yields are far below annual inflation, which is now expected to come in at 7% for December.” JLS: does this mean we should see 7% yields? NOT 1.5%?
“If you consider the fact that money supply in America went up 30% last year, you have to expect prices to go up by that much,” said Mobius, now founder of Mobius Capital Partners after three decades at Franklin Templeton Investments. He added that while technology has pushed prices down, “those 7% inflation numbers are underestimating what’s coming down the pike.”
Mobius’s comments come days after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting now show they are worried about inflation as Omicron raises the risk of supply chain disruptions and higher prices. That’s spurred a jump in U.S. 10-year note yields to an almost two-year high and sparked selling of growth stocks. JLS: our job is to go where the puck will go.
U.S. inflation data this week was keenly watched as concerns grow the Fed is behind the curve in tackling sharply rising price pressures. Here are his other notable remarks from the interview:
· U.S. stocks may be more attractive than Europe by investors as it has the world’s largest companies.
· China’s regulatory crackdown can benefit its smaller stocks by leveling the playing field in some industries. JLS: I don’t care…we won’t be investing in China.
· Mobius is bullish on India and Taiwan. He has also made investments in Turkey and South Africa. JLS: I always consider Mobius’ research: look for more from me, here.
I’ve always strived to have a “smoother ride” when it comes to portfolio management, but to achieve this, we must own the sectors aligned with the current economy and business cycle. Below is the Standard Business Cycle which is a slow-moving thing. Rebalancing your portfolio should be like watching paint dry…slooooow moving.
😲 Why does this matter to you? The economy is the outer circle and the sectors that perform best during that economic cycle are the colored sectors inside this half-circle. Where do you think we are? I think we are at 12:00!
What does Alphabet; Intel: Microsoft; Salesforce; Bank of America; PayPal; Apple; Nvidia; Verizon and Cisco have in common? Click on this link and see! https://justcapital.com/rankings/ They are the Top 10 of the Just Capital 2022 Overall Ranking ranked on issues that matter most in defining just business behavior, today.
😊 Why does this matter to you? 15 years ago, when I began talking about how your investments could be a force for good, I was ahead of the old school investment advisors who said; “all that matters is profits.” I could not agree more…BUT…they were talking about profits over the next few quarters, and I was talking about profits that would lead to a world, and economy, that would protect and benefit our kids, and our grand-kids! YOU AGREED with me…and today, we are the Cool Kids! ESG…Socially Responsible Investing is now a given!
Required Disclosures: Always read the fine print! This content reflects the opinions of Julie Skye and is subject to change without notice and is informational and entertainment purposes. It is not a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that any statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Securities investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. There is no assurance any investment plan or strategy will be successful.
Julie is an Investment Advisor Representative of Sustainable Advisors Alliance, LLC (SAA, LLC): Advisory services are provided by SAA, LLC.
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