This 4th Week of March 2023 Thoughts

Why does it matter to you? You all know I believe a picture is worth 1,000 words: it is not time to go bottom fishing with the stock above, US Bancorp. It is going to take some time for US Bancorp and the financial sector to settle down and for us to know what they are really worth…or, what they might be hiding.THIS is what a falling knife looks like...and this is not something you should get in the way of.Your Client Portal:

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Under Secure 2.0, IRA owners turning 72 this year do not need to take RMDs. The law was enacted late in 2022: financial institutions might have erroneously sent RMD notices to these investors. You will find out by April 28th if you do in fact have to take a RMD this year. Talk to me!

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Tempted to Buy Banks? Don't Catch a Falling Piano

Last weekend the headlines were full of whether we had seen the worst of the banking crisis. The question? Since financial institutions are being bailed out,is it a good time to buy bank stocks that have been hammered? There is a saying I've used for decades: "don't catch a falling knife." Today, thought, it is being applied to bank stocks: in the case of banks like U.S. Bancorp, you risk catching a falling piano if you buy now. Never forget: we are investors, not speculators...not gamblers. Why do investors like "bottom-fishing"? We do it because who doesn't love a bargain? It doesn't matter if it's a pair of shoes or a box of cereal: it just feels good to get a deal. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Why does it matter to you? Today, what is the value of any financial institution when there are potential system-wide issues? We have no clue what a bank’s bond portfolio looks like. You and I were prepared for rising rates: we made changes in our bond portfolios two years ago. I can not believe the Silicon Valley Bank guys were caught flat-footed: they ignored that the FED was telling them there were going to keep raising interest rates. Everyone on Wall Street knows: don't fight the FED. Until the extent of damage is clear: there is no reason to buy U.S. Bancorp or any other bank stock.

THIS is what a falling knife looks like: this is not something you should get in the way of.

Why does it matter to you? You all know I believe a picture is worth 1,000 words: it is not time to go bottom fishing with the stock above, US Bancorp. It is going to take some time for US Bancorp and the financial sector to settle down and for us to know what they are really worth…or, what they might be hiding.

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Change the Fuel, Not the Car

Germany can still make combustion engines; they just can’t run on gasoline. Combustion engines can still be produced, as long as they only run on low-polluting e-fuels, also known as synthetic fuels.

The European Union intends to phase out the production of gas-powered cars in favor of electric vehicles, but there are new efforts to find a compromise between global superpowers and car makers that are pushing for EVs to be the only cars on the road.

In the next 15 years, some drivers and manufacturers don’t realistically see the shift to electric vehicles happening that quickly. Germany, known for its auto-making ingenuity, had its Transport Ministry log objections that e-fuels, which can be pumped into any of the 1.4 billion combustion engine vehicles currently in use, should have a place in the green revolution. The EU vote was then halted, at least for now, because synthetic fuels are more of an interesting experiment rather than anything financially practical.

Why does it matter to you? We all have wondered how there could be enough charging stations built across the country in just a few years. One client, “BL” also asked how farming operations would be able to charge large tractors that run out in the country, 24-7.

Yes, EVs have very small carbon footprints, but in a place like the US, they get charged on an electrical grid that’s still based 80% on oil, coal, and natural gas. E-fuel refineries run on renewable energies like wind and solar. There is so much more to learn as this transition progresses...and this is why we need to invest in the entire supply chain!