2nd Week of August 2021 Thoughts
It seems the tough just keeps coming.
Following the landmark United Nations report released Monday, climate scientists said the path is clear — an immediate and sustained campaign to transform our energy system and reduce greenhouse gases. Ultimately, what it comes down to is that we need to dramatically reduce emissions and stop burning fossil fuels,’ said Peter Frumhoff, director of science and policy at the Cambridge-based Union of Concerned Scientists. He and others urged lawmakers and regulators to enact laws and rules that would:
• Reduce carbon emissions by half what they were in 2010 by the end of the decade and effectively eliminate them by 2050.
• Stop the burning of fossil fuels such as oil and gas; ramp up the use of clean energy, such as wind and solar power; curb deforestation; and use agricultural lands more sustainably.
• Reduce consumption of beef & dairy products, they contribute to deforestation and methane emissions from cattle.
• Impose a tax or other fees on carbon pollution.
• Encourage farmers to better manage their soil and land, so they sequester more carbon dioxide.
• Invest in research to find ways to remove large amounts of carbon from the atmosphere, at reasonable costs.
• Prepare for the unavoidable impacts that the United Nations report says will happen no matter what policymakers do, including sea levels rising by a foot by 2050, more intense storms, greater flooding, and increased droughts.
• Invest in helping the most vulnerable adapt to all the consequences of a warming world, especially the impoverished and those who have the least ability to move or make changes to protect their homes or livelihoods.”
SAA was founded to be a leading voice on how investors can do this work and build financial plans that will help meet their goals.
Below is the Case Shiller Cape ratio showing the S & P is expensive: it has been up 12 of the past 13 years…a very unusual, occurrence. Yes, it could go higher, but only the tech bubble in 2000 had more expensive valuations.
😲 Why does this matter to you? This is big! We have gotten used to some volatile little “test drives” over the last few years. When they say the stock market it expensive, it means that many of underlying stocks are at historic prices…and it will take more, new “good news” for them to go higher. There are U.S. stocks that are still good values (aka cheap) but many of those stocks are cheap for a reason and most of the stocks that have high valuations are expensive for a reason. We are in uncharted territory and need to buckle up: look for my new Risk Tolerance Questionnaire from Positively: I need to know more about how much risk you must take to meet your goals.
Ok…another “mountain chart” but this shows inflation data going back to 1925. The pink shaded parts show periods of rising inflation and the red dashes show recessions. Inflation always leads to recession: wonder why everyone is freaking out? This data is as of May 2021…so today, inflation is above the 5% line, back to 2007 levels. This is big
😊😲 Why does this matter to you? We have not seen a sustained surge in inflation in the U.S. and Europe, for over 30 years: investors AND advisors have limited experience and about repositioning portfolios for inflation. I’m grateful for my graduate schoolwork at TU, taking macro-economics, from 1985-1990: this is familiar stuff to me. We had inflation and stagflation worries in 2007.