the Last Week of April 2021 Thoughts
Updated: Jun 8
ESG | ESG | ESG Matters
thoughts as we finish this 3rd week of March 2021
There are many things of which a wise man might wish to be ignorant. Ralph Waldo Emerson
My colleague from Pinnacle, Chas Craig, had a piece in the Oklahoma Journal Record this week. Many of you remember Chas, and JP Sfranski, two extraordinary analysts who I have abiding respect for. They left Pinnacle a few weeks after I did to start their own Registered Investment Advisory firm and we have met on a regular basis over the years. Many times, they helped me get through a regulatory hurdle that I was stuck on. This week Chas’ piece in the Journal Record are especially timely today: not a day goes that we do not wonder if this bull market is over…and the tendency we have to act based on our “gut.”
“We regularly interweave behavioral finance into this capital markets-focused column because overcoming / succumbing to our psychological tendencies can have as much to do with investment success, or the lack thereof, as does competent fundamental analysis. Specifically, excessive self-regard, over-optimism and availability mis-weighing are just a few of the 17 decision-making biases what can result in our making decisions that are NOT in our best interests.
Loss aversion (the pain of experiencing losses being worse than the joy of the same gains) helps us understand why we can be more emotional than we might want to admit. So, before the next down day that makes you want to take some action to stop the pain, I offer these thoughts:
· Corrections are just the price of admission to long-term returns.
· Corrections and pullbacks are by no means rare.
· Corrections and pullbacks are part of market cycles breathing.
· A corrected market can recover quickly.
As we sit at market highs…try to think how you will feel when a normal 10% - 20% sell-off occurs. Will you be able to see these and remember the points above? Or will you have regrets and wish you had moved to a less volatile strategy? The Risk Tolerance Questionnaires I am now sending out from Hidden Levers will help us start this conversation about how you might feel before such a decline. Today is always the best time to act. Taking some profits for living expenses or a major purchase is one way to avoid regrets…if so, call me!
Required Disclosures: Always read the fine print!
The foregoing content reflects the opinions of Sustainable Advisors Alliance LLC and is subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that any statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. Securities investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. There is no assurance any investment plan or strategy will be successful.
Below is your brain on breaks: the top row of 4 “brains” show someone going from one virtual meeting to the next, with no break: the yellow and red are signs of stress. But the second row of “brains” show what the impact of taking breaks can do. Today, many of us have several Zoom meetings every day, and while it seems to be a time saver, new research shows it is more complicated than this.
😊Why does this matter to you? Our brains are wired for talking with human beings in the real 3D world and not in flattened grids—digitized people that you only see part of. We feel compelled to stare at people, but in the real world, you don’t do that. A single typical video meeting is more stressful than its in-person equivalent; three or four in a row may be downright excruciating. If we layer on “the stressors” like the evening news and the volatility of markets and worries about our portfolio…we might find we are making decisions when we are over-stressed. So, what else is going on in your day and be sure we “give our brains a break”…literally. This is when we risk making wrong-decisions!
Why are the headlines full of the FED…INFLATON…and gulp…Interest Rate hikes? Spend a little time on this chart: this is just for stocks…does not show what happens to bonds…which is worse!
😲 Why does this matter to you? Short term, rising interest rates fall right to the bottom line of stocks, as investors can go into bonds…get better yields and not take the risk. It does take about 18 months for the economy to start to slow…but the market starts reacting BEFORE the first rate hike.