This 3rd Week of September Thoughts
oughts for this 3rd Week of September 2022
Sustainable Advisors Alliance (SAA) was founded on sustainable, impact investing: Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) metrics. Follow our blog here. Email me with YOUR thoughts!
Fed Fund Watch: 10-Year Yield: 3.42% last week, 3.54% this week. Do NOT overly worry that your current bonds have gone down in value: now is the time to plan our next bonds. Does anyone want a COLA? I got rambunctious a few months ago when I wrote we could have an 11% Social Security increase. Looks like 8.7% is more likely. How long will it take? Fed rate increases take 9-12 months to show up in the economy: this is a process that can’t be fixed in 1 or 2 quarters. Recession watch: Summer 2023? Recessions wring out excesses; they cull out weak companies and help us “reset” the economy: why is the R-Word so scary to the market?
After 94 years of data, the average bear market from the peak to bottom, is 17%. You make all of your money in a bear market: most people just don’t realize it at the time.
A hotter-than-expected monthly inflation report threw the stock market for a loop last week and Greg Jensen, co–chief investment officer of Bridgewater, argues that it’s just the beginning of the pain for investors. His claim is that the stock market hasn’t fully priced in a recession, and that the U.S. is at the center of a global bubble that has yet to burst. Translation: we are not over it yet. Do not get stuck in the game of overestimating the FED’s ability to tame inflation: the biggest mistake right now is the belief that we will return to stock prices similar to the pre-COVID days. HOPEFULLY, we will never go back to a decade of the Fed printing free money and investors earning 0% interest rates. It is time for us to get all of forces out of the market that created a decade of overvalued stocks, a pile of debt and 0% yields. This is an unprecedented time and we have to take a step back and accept that we are one year into a pretty meaningful revolution in the capital markets that it will take years to play out. “Ugly Tuesday’s” consumer price reading reignited concerns that inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Barron’s Randall Forsyth recently predicted that inflation will trend lower only slowly. After Tuesday’s CPI report, it is more likely that the FED will keep boosting rates into 2023, which may bring on our next recession. Interest-rate hikes are one of the few tools we have to slow economic growth, and we’re already seeing the impacts in areas such as housing. Home sales have slowed dramatically, as the 30-year mortgage rates recently hit their highest level since 2008. Volatility likely will persist this year. You and I are no stranger to times like this: just know, our smart buys over the next 6 months, can do what the quote at the top of this page says: set us up for the next cycle.
Air pollution is the world’s leading environmental health risk and negatively impacts every single living being: pollutants from energy transformation, energy consumption and from industrial processes, are the main contributors. Poor air quality is not just an academic or political sound bite: it impacts our health, is linked to lower lifespans; reduced agricultural output and damages our forests and water systems. Covid taught us about those who are most vulnerable and have “co-morbidities” as anyone with a co-morbidity; the very young and old are the most at risk. Emissions of sulfur and nitrogen (acid rain) are transformed into sulfuric and nitric acid and when they reach the ground, cause severe environmental damage.
Why does this matter to you? Many of you work with me because we both believe our world is truly an inter- connected web of life. We want to be a part contributing to the well-being of our planet, our kids, our grand-kids, and future generations. We know when our ecosystem is at risk and what goes around, comes around: it will eventually come back to us. Over the last 6 months the opponents of sustainable / impact investing have launched a negative campaign, claiming that those who are working for a better world are the problem! We know this is not a win-lose scenario: we can do well and do good. Read more here: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development
The last quarter always creates opportunities to reduce our coming tax bill and this year’s rocky stock market is no exception. As we head toward December 31 st the only tools we have are ROTH Conversions; charitable contributions; making business expenditures and selling stocks / bonds that are now selling at a loss to what we paid for them. Claiming these losses not only offsets any capital gains (often not realized til December) this year, but also create a capital loss carry-over in the future. Why does it matter for you? Do not miss the chance to offset any 2022 capital gains as well as offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income. No one likes a loss…but now is the time to get over that aversion and see if we can find the silver lining in this very difficult, cloudy year. WHAT I NEED FROM YOU: if you have not sent me your 2021 tax return, let's talk about the easiest way to do that. We will work on this and then reach out to your CPA to give them the numbers so they can do their best work for you. Read more here: How Tax-Loss Harvesting Workslie Skye | 918-408-7981 | firstname.lastname@example.org
Required Disclosures: Always read the fine print! This content reflects the opinions of Julie Skye and is subject to change without notice. This content is for informational and entertainment purposes, and it is not a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that any statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Securities investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. There is no assurance any investment plan or strategy will be successful. Julie is an Investment Advisor Representative of Sustainable Advisors Alliance, LLC (SAA, LLC): Advisory services are provided by SAA, LLC. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training.