This 4th Week of February 2023 Thoughts
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The 10-Year Bond Yield hit 3.93% this week! Tip for your Client Portal: if you are accessing on your tablet or phone, look at the bottom of the screen for the Vault. It is probably “SAFE” for you to give your tax documents to your CPA! I’ll let you know if there is an updated 1099. Take our Impact Assessment! Take our Risk Assessment!
Soft landing: no Landing; hard Landing: Crash: Hyperinflation: Persistent inflation? Inflation moving down to the 2% target the FED wants. What to do?
Any possible scenario will take months to unfold, so know this stage we are in now is not ending any time soon. But, I have to say, the non-stop parade of pundits and their lengthy pieces on what could happen, is wearing me out. Daily headlines like; “Stocks have the highest 2-day winning streak in 2 weeks” show us that newscasters are grabbing at straws. After a year of headlines to either push us into a flight or fight response or that now was the time to buy have been worthless.
Why does it matter to you? Take a victory lap but resist the urge to feel smug: seasoned investors have ignored the headlines and have not sold out on the worst of the days. However, the newest generation of investors that were born during the pandemic bought a lot of risky stuff, high…and sold that stuff, low. After almost 3 years of writing these Weekly Thoughts, you have read real-time, that the key was not to just buy-and-hold. It was to have an asset allocation strategy based on THIS economic cycle…what we were seeing now. Coming into 2020 with a high allocation to cash was the right thing to do. Now we wait.What’s your risk profile? This chart banishes the headline fears that the coming market crash could be worse than 1929. Of course, they footnote tells you how to sign up for the writer’s blog, or to call the 800 number to load up on gold. Lessons from my 40 years as an investment advisor are the same: volatility equals opportunity and never follow the headlines. Today, “the consensus” wants you to buy one-year treasury bonds. In 2019 it was Bitcoin; during Covid it was the “stay at home stocks” and 2022 was all about the big tech stocks. Today, locking in guaranteed 4% return holding U.S. paper has replaced all of these previous roads to financial glory.
Why does it matter to you? The message in this chart is that speculating by buying stocks on margin, which can be so dangerous when prices drop. If you buy on margin, but then are forced to sell stocks that are dropping like rocks.…you end up with the stories we head about 1929. In 1929, margin rates were 90%: with an account worth $587,589 you could buy an additional $528,830 worth of stocks. Today, though, with an account worth $587,589, can buy an only an ADDITIONAL $388,862 in stocks, on margin. The trick with margin is you are forced to sell if your portfolio drops below a certain level. How Margin Works. There is not a speculative set up for calamity: the level of margin is not worrisome and this, combined with a very strong banking system, shows we are NOT set up for a repeat of 2008. We are, however, set up for other scenarios, and we will make decisions based on the data. Just like the FED is doing.
This piece was taken from Rocky Mountain Institute CleanEnergy101I'm a new Text block ready for your content.
Methane-Detecting Satellites--Satellite “completeness” is a new and powerful concept in the push to slash climate pollution.Frances Reuland and Sasha Bylsma have written a terrific piece on how Satellites are growing in prominence as an important tool in addressing the climate crisis by spotting global emissions. There are already dozens of greenhouse gas-detecting satellites in orbit today, and both public and private institutions have announced plans to launch more in the future. As satellite constellations expand — along with the data and insights they provide — so does the nuance in how they are used. To match the right tool with the right job, it’s important to understand what each satellite is designed to do, and how their data can help decision makers meet diverse but interrelated climate goals and objectives. It is very cool to know that Satellites Make Invisible Emissions Visible and there is a “space race to save climate” is under way, and for good reason. Alarming, record-setting years for atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane call for immediate and widespread mitigation. You can’t manage what you don’t measure, and making the previously invisible emissions visible from space is critical to halving carbon emissions by 2030 as pledged in the Paris Agreement, and to meeting the Global Methane Pledge’s target to cut methane emissions 30 percent by 2030. Why does it matter to you? In June 2013, I presented the first Methane Emissions Shareholder resolution at the Oneok Annual Meeting, for Trillium. A year later, my activism resulted in my being fired from Pinnacle. I still laugh today: Oneok’ s response was; “Well, we are not leaking methane, but if we were, it would not be very much. It is just too expensive to measure at all the wells we are fracking.”
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